SEC Filing Analysis: High Probability Advisors, LLC

Executive Summary

• Trading Significance: Medium
• Key Takeaway: High Probability Advisors, LLC filed a 13F-HR for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, disclosing $729.3 million in managed assets across 65 positions. The portfolio shows a strong preference for factor-based and broad-market ETFs, particularly from Goldman Sachs, iShares, and Dimensional Fund Advisors.
• Market Impact: As a lagging indicator (data is as of 2025-09-30), this filing is unlikely to cause immediate market volatility. It is more valuable for long-term analysis of institutional strategy and popular asset classes.

Filer Information

Field	Value
Company	High Probability Advisors, LLC
Ticker Symbol	null
CIK	0002039415
Type	Institutional Investment Manager

Filing Details

Field	Value
Form Type	13F-HR
Period of Report	2025-09-30
Filing Date	2025-10-14
Total Portfolio Value	$729,324,841
Number of Holdings	65

Top 5 Holdings Analysis

This section details the largest positions by market value, which represent the core of the firm's strategy.

Issuer	Security	Value (USD)	Shares
GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TR	ACTIVEBETA US LG	$105,652,076	810,962
ISHARES TR	MSCI USA MMENTM	$81,663,434	318,438
DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUST	US HIGH PROFITAB	$56,051,222	1,484,014
GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TR	ACTIVEBETA INT	$39,328,315	956,661
ISHARES TR	NEW YORK MUN ETF	$37,591,745	704,625

Market Impact Analysis

Stock Impact Prediction

• Direction: Neutral
• Reasoning: 13F filings report positions held at the end of a quarter, meaning the data is at least 45 days old. This information is historical and used by the market to gauge institutional sentiment and trends rather than to react to specific, recent trades.

Volume & Sentiment

• Expected Volume Impact: Minimal. The disclosure is of a diversified portfolio, not a concentrated, activist stake in a single company.
• Sentiment Indicator: Bullish on factor-based ETFs. The significant allocations to momentum, high profitability, and value factor ETFs indicate a systematic, rules-based investment approach rather than discretionary stock picking.

Investment Insights

Portfolio Strategy Indicators

• ETF Domination: The portfolio is overwhelmingly composed of ETFs, suggesting a top-down, asset allocation-driven strategy.
• Factor-Based Investing: Large positions in 'ActiveBeta', 'Momentum Factor', and 'High Profitability' ETFs show a clear focus on capturing specific market factors.
• Diversification: Holdings are spread across U.S. large-cap, international, small-cap, and fixed-income ETFs, indicating a well-diversified, multi-asset class approach.
• Limited Individual Stock Exposure: Direct holdings in single stocks like Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA are present but constitute a very small percentage of the total portfolio value, likely for specific client mandates or as satellite positions.

Key Takeaways

1. Systematic Approach: High Probability Advisors employs a systematic, ETF-based strategy rather than active stock selection.
2. Core Holdings: The core of the portfolio is built on large-cap US and international equity ETFs, supplemented by factor tilts.
3. Lagging Data: Investors should be aware that these holdings were as of September 30, 2025, and may have changed since.

Contextual Analysis

Filing Context

This 13F-HR is a mandatory quarterly filing required by the SEC for institutional investment managers with over $100 million in qualifying assets under management. It provides transparency into the holdings of large investors.

Market Context

This filing reflects the firm's positioning at the end of the third quarter of 2025. To fully understand the decisions, one would need to analyze the market performance and economic environment of that period. The heavy allocation to broad market and factor ETFs suggests a strategy designed to capture market beta and specific risk premia.

Risk Assessment

Risk Level: Low

Informational Risks

• Timeliness: The primary risk in using 13F data is its backward-looking nature. The reported positions may no longer be held by the firm.
• Lack of Granularity: The filing does not show short positions, cash holdings, or other asset types, providing an incomplete picture of the firm's overall strategy and risk exposure.
• No 'Why': The filing shows what was held, but not why. The rationale behind the positions is not disclosed.

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. The information presented is based on publicly available SEC filings and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Analysis generated on 2025-10-14 | Data source: SEC EDGAR