SEC Filing Analysis: OxenFree Capital LLC

Executive Summary

• Trading Significance: Medium
• Key Takeaway: OxenFree Capital LLC has filed its quarterly Form 13F-HR, reporting $181,761,863 in assets under management as of September 30, 2025. The portfolio shows a heavy concentration in various ETFs, particularly from the 'EA SERIES TRUST' family, indicating a broad, diversified strategy.
• Market Impact: As a lagging indicator, this 13F filing is unlikely to cause immediate market volatility. However, it provides valuable insight into the allocation strategies of a mid-sized institutional manager, revealing trends in ETF adoption, including exposure to cryptocurrency ETFs.

Filer Information

Field	Value
Filer Name	OxenFree Capital LLC
CIK	0002009781
Total AUM Reported	$181,761,863
Number of Holdings	47

Portfolio Overview

Field	Value
Form Type	13F-HR (Holdings Report)
Period of Report	2025-09-30
Filing Date	2025-10-09

Top 5 Holdings by Value

1. EA SERIES TRUST (STRIVE 500 ETF): $41,924,940
2. EA SERIES TRUST (STRIVE 1000 GRWT): $24,126,717
3. EA SERIES TRUST (STRIVE TOTAL RET): $17,255,377
4. EA SERIES TRUST (STRIVE 1000 DIV): $12,206,244
5. EA SERIES TRUST (STRIVE SML CAP): $10,681,107

Market Impact Analysis

Stock Impact Prediction

• Direction: Neutral
• Reasoning: Form 13F is a report of holdings at the end of a quarter. The data is up to 45 days old by the time it's filed and does not reflect current trading activity. Therefore, it's primarily used for historical analysis rather than as a forward-looking market catalyst.

Volume & Sentiment

• Expected Volume Impact: Low. The disclosure is of past positions and is not expected to drive significant trading volume in the underlying securities.
• Sentiment Indicator: Neutral to Bullish on ETFs. The portfolio's structure shows strong institutional conviction in using ETFs for exposure to various market segments, including large-cap, growth, value, and cryptocurrency.

Investment Insights

Positive Market Indicators

• Diversified Strategy: The use of 47 different holdings, primarily ETFs, suggests a well-diversified approach to managing risk.
• Modern Asset Allocation: Inclusion of positions in the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF ($1.02M) and Bitwise Ethereum ETF ($0.46M) indicates an allocation to digital assets, reflecting a modern portfolio strategy.
• Significant ETF Concentration: The heavy investment in 'EA SERIES TRUST' ETFs (Strive) points to a specific strategic alliance or conviction in that particular family of funds.

Risk Factors

• Lagging Data: The primary risk of using 13F data for investment decisions is that the positions may have changed significantly between the reporting date (Sept 30) and the filing date (Oct 9), or since.
• ETF Concentration: While diversified, the heavy concentration in a single ETF provider (EA SERIES TRUST) could pose a risk if that provider or its specific strategies underperform.

Key Takeaways

1. OxenFree Capital manages a portfolio of over $181M, primarily through ETFs.
2. The firm has a significant strategic focus on the 'Strive' family of ETFs, which constitute its largest positions.
3. The portfolio includes exposure to cryptocurrency through Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, signaling institutional adoption of the asset class.

Contextual Analysis

Filing Significance

A Form 13F-HR is a mandatory quarterly report for institutional investment managers with at least $100 million in assets under management. It discloses their long positions in publicly-traded securities, providing transparency into institutional holdings.

Portfolio Context

The portfolio is dominated by ETFs, which are funds that hold a basket of securities. This strategy allows the manager to gain broad exposure to different market segments (e.g., S&P 500, small-cap, growth) without picking individual stocks. The top holdings are all within the same trust, suggesting a core strategic choice by the manager.

Risk Assessment

Risk Level: Low

Informational Risks

• Backward-Looking: The data is historical and does not represent the firm's current portfolio.
• No Short Positions: 13F filings do not require the disclosure of short positions, providing an incomplete picture of the manager's overall market view.
• No Cash/Other Assets: The report only covers specific types of securities and does not include cash, futures, or other asset classes.

Market Considerations

• ETF Flows: The data contributes to a broader understanding of aggregate flows into different ETFs and market sectors.
• Manager Strategy: The filing is a useful tool for understanding the investment style and preferences of OxenFree Capital LLC.

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. The information presented is based on publicly available SEC filings and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Analysis generated on 2025-10-10 | Data source: SEC EDGAR